Our valuation models are now free, interactive and in your browser
Laniakea Research has turned the models behind its investment decisions into free web tools: one for Tesla's robotaxi business and one for SpaceX's orbital data centers. Open them, change our assumptions, and see for yourself what has to be true.
Why we moved from Excel to the web
For a long time our models lived in Excel workbooks. They worked for us, but they were slow, cumbersome and hard for anyone else to explore. You had to download a large file, find the right input cells, and trust that you had not broken a formula along the way.
A model is only useful if you can question it. So we rebuilt both models as interactive web tools. There is nothing to download and no login. You move a slider and the valuation changes right away.
Tesla robotaxi economics
The Tesla Robotaxi Valuation Cockpit starts with a single robotaxi: what it earns in fares and what it costs to run. It then scales that to a fleet, applies a valuation multiple and discounts the result back to today.
What you can do with it:
Switch between the Cybercab, the Model Y and two Waymo vehicles and see how cost per mile and value change.
Change fares, utilization, vehicle cost, efficiency, remote-operator ratio, fleet share and more. Slider colors show whether a change raises or lowers the valuation.
See which inputs matter most in a sensitivity (tornado) chart.
Run a Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 scenarios to see a range of outcomes instead of one number.
Compare the robotaxi business with Tesla's live market capitalization.
Switch on the Advanced view for the finance settings: risk-free rate, beta, equity risk premium, terminal multiple and tax.
The tool values only the robotaxi business, not Tesla's cars, energy or Optimus. It assumes all profits until the chosen year are reinvested in the fleet, the self-driving software and compute, so it counts no interim cash flow and deducts no separate fleet cost.
SpaceX orbital data centers
The SpaceX Orbital Data Center Valuation Cockpit tests the economics of putting computing capacity in orbit. You can vary launch cost, the number of Starship flights per year, satellite cost, satellite lifetime, electricity cost, the terminal multiple and the discount rate. The tool then shows the present value of the business next to SpaceX's market capitalization, with the same sensitivity and Monte Carlo analysis.
Why we built simulations, not only calculators
A spreadsheet gives you a number. It does not show you what the world looks like if that number is right.
That is why both tools include simulations. In the orbital data center tool you can watch satellites circle in a sun-synchronous orbit while Starship launches build and replenish the constellation. In the robotaxi tool you can watch a full day of fleet operations, with rides, miles, fares and costs counting up, and a map of the rollout city by city.
Seeing the end state matters because it lets you judge whether it is feasible at all. How many launches does the constellation need? How large is the fleet, and how many rides does it serve each day? If a valuation only works in a world that looks implausible once you see it, you should know that before you rely on it.
Where to start
Each cockpit opens in a simple view: one answer and the few assumptions that drive it. A guided tour walks you through the page, and three ready-made views, Skeptic, our base case and Believer, show how far apart reasonable assumptions can lead. When you want more detail, switch to the Standard or Advanced view.
If you are new to the topic, start with the five-minute explainer videos. They begin with the technological breakthrough behind each business, a car that drives itself and a rocket that flies again and again, and then build the value step by step. Each cockpit also answers the questions investors ask most often in a short FAQ.
Challenge our assumptions
Our base cases are our view, not the truth. If you think launch costs will fall faster, robotaxi fares will be lower or the discount rate should be higher, change the input and see what happens. We would like to hear where you disagree. The most useful feedback we get is a specific assumption and the reason it should be different.
Important to know
These tools are scenario models built on stated assumptions. They are not forecasts, and nothing here is investment advice. Share prices and market data are fetched live, but the models show what has to be true for a given valuation, not what will happen. Laniakea Research holds positions in Tesla and SpaceX and may benefit if their share prices move.
Try them
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